Cold in Russia this morning... -70 degrees http://www.daculaweather.com/world_extremes.php?extremes=World

Just posted by an Atlanta area meteorologist:

"Since this threat has firmed up and it is no longer in the medium range I felt it needed it own thread. I think north GA, at least north of the perimeter will see some snow, but accumulation is the question. Looks like the area in the mountains and over to Gainesville and Athens could maybe get an inch or two if the precip comes in fast enough. I guess we may get some benefit from the brief -NAO after all...

Euro is rolling..... "

Three new maps uploaded showing the 12z today Euro snowfall forecast maps, 1am, 7am, and 10am Tuesday.

OK, the big question - Walton and Gwinnett? Anything?

ALWAYS the big question. We're still 5 days away so things can change a lot.
Latest 12Z GFS shows .38" of liquid precip for Gainesville (would be all snow) early Tuesday morning. Would probably be equivalent to about 2-3" if it were to stick. We're borderline right now.

I found it! Here is where winter is!
http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/02/09/european-cold-snap-freezes-danube-blocks-ships-in-port/

So we need to cross the pond if we want a winter this year?

That might get you winter a little quicker.

We are borderline on the Monday/Tuesday system. We'll know much more in a day or two. As I mentioned in my original post, the models are really struggling with the timing of different features but they seem to be getting their act together as we get closer to the moment.

The models keep changing the timing of the cold and precip. More than a few meteorologist have mentioned how poorly the models handle pattern changes while they are underway, which means the details of any system more than 2-3 days out are not going to be very accurate.

Special Weather Statement issued this morning at 4:33am
http://www.daculaweather.com/national_alerts/severe_alert.php

Wind Advisory Issued until 7pm Friday evening
http://www.daculaweather.com/national_alerts/severe_alert.php

We can expect gust to 35 mph.

Latest update from the NWS:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
956 AM EST SAT FEB 11 2012

...SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE FOR NORTH GEORGIA...
...WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS TODAY...

.UPDATE...THE COMBINATION OF A VERY STRONG 1045 MB HIGH OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND EXITING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST IS
CREATING AN IMPRESSIVE GRADIENT LOCALLY WITH WINDS ALREADY 25G35
KTS AT OBSERVATION SITES. WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD FOR ALL AREAS
TODAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS...STRONG COLD ADVECTION COMBINED WITH
VORTICITY MAXIMA NOTED AT 700 MB ARE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT AVAILABLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. GENERALLY
FROM NORTH ATLANTA AND POINTS NORTHWARD...THIS HAS BEEN IN THE
FORM OF LIGHT SN OR LIGHT RA MIXED WITH SN. NORTHERN ZONES WITH
ALL SNOW LOOK GOOD FOR CURRENTLY ADVERTISED AMOUNTS BASED ON
REPORTS WHICH ARE GENERALLY A DUSTING OR LESS. WILL MONITOR FOR
ANY REQUIRED UPGRADES TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. ALSO WILL BE
WATCHING THE TRANSITION ZONES WHERE LIGHT RAIN FELL AND TEMPS
CONTINUE TO DROP OFF. MAY BE LOOKING AT A SITUATION WHERE BLACK
ICE COULD FORM...ALTHOUGH STRONG WINDS SHOULD AID IN EVAPORATIVE
PROCESSES.

There is a nice area of snow showers showing up on the Huntsville radar moving this direction. Temperatures are already 35 degrees here and falling around 2-3 degrees per hour. Expect light snow showers off and on for the rest of the day.
Enjoy!

Here Steve! White stuff?

I think we'll see some light snow falling at some point. It won't stick but fun to look at. I had a little sleet that I reported to NWS a little earlier.

A Winter Weather Advisory was just posted for the NW part of Georgia for up to an inch of accumulation. Some of that band will very possibly make it this far south.

Huntsville radar:
http://www.daculaweather.com/grlevel3/al-state_huntsville_htx_br248.php

OK, so let's launch Snow Flurry Watch 2012 Alert in the Loganville-Grayson area - let us know if you see any snow this far south today!

Heading to Missouri in the am...def gonna see some weather on the way. Ill send pics

There should be some snow up that direction on Monday. Would love to see the pics Jeffery!

The air became too dry for the moisture and it all evaporated before getting this far south. The main concern now will be the cold temperatures tonight. I'm about degree away from the freezing mark (4:00pm) on the way down to about 20º or so. Still have very gusty winds here and my low wind chill so far is 23º at 2:52pm. Since there are plants that are budding due to the warm temperatures, you might want to take precautions to protect those and your pets from the winds and cold tonight.

Interesting overrunning event unfolding tomorrow night. This is a comment from an Atlanta area meteorologist:

"The GFS snow depth product has all of north GA north of the metro area 1-2" except far NE where about .5 to 1 is forecast. My house in Dekalb county no accumulations. Not unexpected, but maybe we can squeeze that snow line a tad south. Folks in the far northern ATL burbs .5 to 1" This looks very similar to the RPM snow forecast. Sorry TN (except mountains and far S), and of course not much in NC."

Atlanta NWS said this at 6:40am this morning:

SOME MIX OF LIQUID/FREEZING/FROZEN EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF NORTH GEORGIA WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. USING YOUNKIN THICKNESS PRECIP COULD START OUT AS A MIX OF RAIN OR SLEET OVER MUCH OF NORTH GEORGIA INCLUDING THE ATLANTA TO ATHENS AREAS. MOSTLY SNOW OR SLEET INDICATED FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

Atlanta NWS 2:22pm Sunday:

...WINTRY WEATHER BECOMING MORE LIKELY FOR NORTHERN TIER OF
FORECAST AREA...

LOOKING AT PARTIAL THICKNESS AND TOP DOWN METHODOLOGY...GOING
WITH A MIX AT ONSET FROM LA GRANGE THROUGH ATHENS AND POINTS
NORTHWARD. EXPECT NORTHERN STRIP TO ABOUT TWO COUNTIES DEEP TO WET BULB ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ALL SNOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD... GENERALLY FROM JUST SOUTH OF ROME TO GAINESVILLE. EXPECTING GENERALLY UP TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION BEFORE PRECIP CHANGES TO ALL RAIN TUE MORNING. ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...EXPECTING UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WITH LIKELY ADVISORIES NEEDED WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. ALSO CONCERNED THAT IN AREAS OF THIS
NORTHERN TIER WHERE THE SNOW CHANGES TO RAIN THAT THERE WILL BE
JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN.

FOR THE ATLANTA METRO AND POINTS SOUTHWARD...AGAIN EXPECTING A MIX
AT THE ONSET WITH LITTLE TO IN MOST CASES NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. A QUICK TRANSITION TO RAIN WILL OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER
ONSET WITH ONLY RAIN EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY.

Special Weather Statement issued at 3:32pm Sunday:
http://www.daculaweather.com/national_alerts/severe_alert.php

Thank you very much for the alert Steve! I've got it up there now. We really appreciate you keeping us ahead of the game when it comes to weather!

There will be a very small window of opportunity, probably about 3-6 hours, where we'll have a shot at seeing wintry precipitation. Assuming the timing doesn't change, it will start sometime early Tuesday (2-4am).

At 5:47am Monday the NWS issued a Winter Weather Advisory for counties in north Georgia for accumulations of up to several inches of sleet and snow.

For our area you can expect a rain/snow mixture to begin after midnight and last through 10am or so before changing to all rain. Expect only minor accumulations at best in our area as the ground is just too warm. We will be very close to the freezing mark and evaporative cooling may drop us below freezing for a while. The cold air will be short lived though as a very warm southerly flow pushes the cold northeastward.

Winter weather is not over. There is another system this weekend that may potentially bring more winter like weather to our area so stay tuned!

NWS Special Weather Statement 2:45 pm Monday:

...MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SLEET EXPECTED TONIGHT...
...NO TRAVEL PROBLEMS EXPECTED BUT SOME SLICK SPOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND FALLS INTO THE RELATIVELY COLD AND DRY AIR NEAR THE GROUND...IT IS EXPECTED TO FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN AND SLEET OVER MUCH OF NORTH GEORGIA BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO RAIN BEFORE SUNRISE.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA TONIGHT. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WARM GROUND AND LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SLEET OR SNOW...NO SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED. SOME SLICK SPOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. PERSONS PLANNING TRAVEL
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING SHOULD CHECK THE LATEST CONDITIONS AND FORECASTS BEFORE VENTURING OUT.

Well? Did you get up to watch the sleet? If not, run outside real quick and you might find a spot when some collected. I had an outdoor chair that had the bottom full of it.
That's the story of our life in Georgia... so close yet so far.

Expect a high of 50 today and 64 for the following two days with rain returning Wednesday night. Still eyeing another system that looks promising and I'll have more on that later.

Dense fog Advisory Issued 4:54 am Wednesday:

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
454 AM EST WED FEB 15 2012

...WIDESPREAD AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING...

.MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW
AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO FORM THIS MORNING. THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY MID MORNING.

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING.

• LOCATIONS...NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA

• VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN MANY LOCATIONS.

• TIMING...FROM NOW UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING.

• IMPACTS...REDUCED VISIBILITIES FOR DRIVING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE
REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. IF
DRIVING...SLOW DOWN...USE YOUR HEADLIGHTS...AND LEAVE PLENTY OF
DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU.

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