OK Steve, my first and obvious question - where will it bring us the good surf?

Too early to tell. We're looking at Monday or Tuesday right now and the forecast track error is very large at this point. So it's really a wait and see event right now. Here's a little more information about the reconnaissance flights that occured today and a few coming up.

OPERATIONS
Wednesday, Aug 22, 2012

NOAA-42: Is currently flying in Tropical Storm Isaac. This flight took of around 2000 UTC from Barbados and will land in Barbados.
Comments: NOAA42 is flying a P-3 TDR mission. Three HRD scientists will be on this flight.

Thursday, Aug 23, 2012

G-IV: Is scheduled around Tropical Storm Isaac. Take off will be at 1730 UTC from MacDill and will recover at MacDill. The G-IV will be sampling the subtropical ridge north of Isaac. No HRDers will be on this flight.

NOAA-42: Scheduled for a tasked mission into Tropical Storm Isaac. Takeoff will be at 0800 UTC from Barbados and landing in Barbados.
Comments: NOAA42 will fly a P-3 TDR mission into AL94. Three HRD scientists will be on this flight.

Recon menu for tonight.
------------------------------
-USAF recon just left the system.
-We have the NOAA research mission until 11:30 pm
-USAF recon begins fixes at 1:30 am
-NOAA Research mission begins at 5 am

G-IV synoptic mission is scheduled for 1:30 pm tomorrow
------------------------------

Lots of interest in this storm.

You can get buoy data here. Most of the buoys record wave height (as well as peak period etc), wind, temp (air and water), and pressure, so it can track the progress of the storm by watching the buoys in it's path.
http://www.daculaweather.com/4_buoy_gom_2.php Click on the Caribbean link on the right of this page.

At 0600 UTC, 23 August 2012, TROPICAL STORM ISAAC (AL09) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 15.5°N and 63.5°W. The current intensity was 40 kt and the center was moving at 14 kt at a bearing of 265 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb.

Yesterday at this time Isaac was moving at about 22mph so he has slowed down considerably. Isaac is moving just a hair south of due west but is expected to slowly turn more northward over the next several days. The models are still insistent in bringing the storm to the Gulf of Mexico and our direction. Here's the most recent model run showing the projected path by all the models: http://www.daculaweather.com/images/2012_08/track_late_23.png

It's looking more and more like a Florida peninsula landfall, possibly somewhere around Pensacola. It's still very early and much can happen between now and then, but anyone with interest on the Gulf coast needs to pay very close attention to the forecast track over the next several days. The model consensus appears to be narrowing down the track to that general area.

Again... you can get additional information from this page and I'll make regular updates as I get more information: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_isaac.php

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 67.1W
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM SSW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 255 MI...405 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

-------------------------------------
Isaac has started a turn toward the WNW this afternoon. It had been tracking due west for several days. Winds are still at 40 mph. It's beginning to appear that Isaac will miss Hispaniola, which means that the storm has a much better chance of being stronger as it approaches the Gulf. Hispaniola (Dominican Republic and Haiti) has a fairly high mountain range with one peak reaching more than 10,000 feet. Most tropical systems get shredded apart by the island. By staying south, not only does the storm avoid the mountains but also stays out over some very warm water.

Issac is a large storm but so far hasn't strengthened much. A very chaotic satellite view indicates that dry air is still filtering to the core and preventing it from gaining strength. As it gains latitude the dry air entrainment should end and Isaac may become a hurricane in 36-48 hours.

Here's the latest model intensity chart showing what the models believe will happen (at this point) to Isaac in terms of strength.
http://www.daculaweather.com/images/2012_08/12_strength.png

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 70.0W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM S OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

---------------------------
Overnight Isaac has become a little stronger but has turned back to its westward motion for now. Expect Isaac to begin to strengthen today and it has a much better and more symmetrical presentation on the IR satellite loop this morning, as compared to yesterday.

Here's a disturbing image if you live on the central Gulf coast. This is the latest computer model forecast track for Isaac.
http://www.daculaweather.com/images/2012_08/computer_model_08-24.png

More information http://www.daculaweather.com/4_isaac.php

It appears that the latest information from the hurricane hunter aircraft will probably cause the wind speed to be around 50mph on the next update. The last aircraft reported flight level winds of about 75mph just a little while ago.

...ISAAC STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 70.8W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSW OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

New track image uploaded.

Note... Isaac has increased in strength from 40 mph early this morning to 60mph now.

We're waiting on the 5pm update to come in but here's what we know now...
The latest location is 15.5N, 70.1W and moving NW at 14mph with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph. It's beginning to look like Isaac is starting to get its act together, the surface circulation has lined up with the 850 hPa circulation based on the dropsonde which has light and variable winds its entire decent. For the last several days, there hasn't been much continuity between the upper levels and the lower levels as the system was not aligned vertically. The upper levels were some distance away from the surface low so it looked like a tilted funnel cloud.

It's very possible that Isaac will only graze the coast of Hispaniola and survive intact as it heads toward Cuba. If so, significant strengthening could take place over the warm Caribbean waters later tonight and in the morning.

Right now, landfall is still expected to be on the northern Gulf coast. Landfall is expected Tuesday/Wednesday.

More after the 5pm update.

Looks like I picked the wrong week for my annual vacation to Siesta key (Sarasota), Fl. Flying into it tomorrow & back into it at home on Wednesday.

...ISAAC STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...CENTER TO MAKE LANDFALL IN
HAITI TONIGHT...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 71.9W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES

I've got something really cool that I'd like to share.
You now have a way to track a hurricane hunter plane in almost real-time, complete with all the readings, as well as readings from their dropsondes.

First, you'll need Google Earth. (earth.google.com) After installing Google Earth, go to this website: http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/

On the right-hand side, there will be a link that says:
"Live Recon Data in Google Earth" and this is the file you want to download from that link.
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/ge/Recon_Data_for_the_Atlantic_Basin.kmz

Clicking on that link will either download a .kmz file automatically or it will prompt you to either open or save. If prompted, choose “Open.” Otherwise, find where the file is saved and open it, or click on the file if it appears at the bottom of your browser as shown.

Google Earth should automatically open when the .kmz file is opened. Choose the present mission at left by clicking on the radio button.

Google Earth will automatically zoom in and track the flight in progress. If you want to examine wind speed or other parameters recorded from the plane along the flight, click on the colorized wind barbs.

When dropsondes are released, you’ll see what appears to be a grey or black tube. Click on that for the dropsonde data. Centers of circulation are also noted when pinpointed.

...ISAAC TEMPORARILY SLOWS DOWN...BUT STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL IN HAITI TONIGHT...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 72.0W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM SE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES

...ISAAC GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD HAITI...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 72.5W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES
----------------------------------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...AND FOR THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM OCEAN REEF ON THE EAST COAST WESTWARD TO BONITA BEACH ON THE WEST COAST.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET...AND FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

...ISAAC EMERGING FROM THE COAST OF HAITI...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS
ISSUED FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 73.3W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES
---------------------------------------------

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS
* THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD
* FLORIDA BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD

One of the tropical meteorologist that I follow has made his first call for the storm. Here is what he's calling:
http://www.daculaweather.com/images/2012_08/phil_first_call.png

Since the speed of Isaac has slowed down, impacts for us have been pushed back a day.
http://www.daculaweather.com/4_isaac.php

...CENTER OF ISAAC MOVING INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 73.8W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM ESE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSW OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

...CENTER OF ISAAC NEAR EASTERN CUBA...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR
PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 74.6W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM SSE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
------------------------------------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

* THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST TO SEBASTIAN INLET.

* A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH.

* A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO TARPON SPRINGS.

Here is the latest QPF (amount of precipitation) forecast for Tuesday through Thursday from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center: http://www.daculaweather.com/images/2012_08/qpf.gif

The entire precipitation forecast can be found here: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_hpc_qpf_disco.php

You did see the current rainfall forecast for us didn't you?

The thing that's becoming more troubling is the models forecasting Isaac to slow down dramatically as it comes ashore. The official NHC track shows Isaac moving from lower Alabama to north central Alabama over the course of two days. Tremendous amounts of rain are going to fall, especially over Georgia. We will be located in the front front quadrant of the storm which puts Georgia under the prime spot for rainfall. North to central Georgia is still very dry and it can absorb 4-5" before flooding becomes a major issue, but that cushion will get eaten up very quickly if this storm crawls. I'm very worried about storm surge in the northeast corner of the Gulf as well as most of the west coast of the peninsula. I'll have some storm surge charts in a little while, but one estimate shows a surge of more than 25 feet in the right front quadrant of the storm.

...ISAAC MOVING NORTHWESTWARD JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN
CUBA...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 76.7W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ENE OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES

You'll be able to watch Isaac as it passes over the Florida Keys from the Key West Dual Pol radar here: http://www.daculaweather.com/grlevel4/4_byx_br248.php

...ISAAC HAS NOT STRENGTHENED...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 81.5W
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SSE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM NE OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES
------------------------------
Isaac is tearing up the Keys right now, you can watch on the Key West Dual Pol radar loop(s) I have going right now. http://www.daculaweather.com/grlevel4/4_byx_br248.php

Isaac is forecast to make a landfall in Mississippi, further west than in the previous forecast. Here's the new QPF forecast that is now showing 8-11" over northern/central Georgia. http://www.daculaweather.com/images/2012_08/qpf_26.gif

...CENTER OF ISAAC PASSING JUST SOUTH OF KEY WEST...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 82.3W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES
---------------------------------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WATCH IS CHANGED TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUSIANA TO DESTIN FLORIDA...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS.

...CENTER OF ISAAC MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 82.6W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM SW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
ABOUT 530 MI...850 KM SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
---------------------------------------------

No real changes right now. Isaac is doing it's best to form a core and I expect by morning, it will probably be successful. Once it does, it should begin to steadily strengthen.

...ISAAC CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...NEW
WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF LOUISIANA...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 84.2W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES
-----------------------------------------------

Our chance for really heavy rain continues to diminish as Isaac moves further west.

From the Atlanta NWS office:
-----------------------------------
..DIRECT IMPACT FROM ISAAC SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE ATLANTA FORECAST AREA...

..1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN STILL POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

From Atlanta NWS: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_afd_ffc.php

BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK FROM NHC...OVERALL QPF IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 4.5 INCHES OR HIGHER ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR CONCERN...THOUGH AN ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...IS STILL
POSSIBLE EVEN WITH A MORE WESTWARD TRACK OF ISSAC. BEST 0-1KM
SHEAR SPREADS NORTHWARD INTO GEORGIA THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...AND
GREATEST ISOLATED TORNADO RISK WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH OF I-20.

...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING AFFECTING THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...
SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE THREAT EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.1N 85.9W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES

It appears that landfall will occur right around Gulfport/Biloxi MS.

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES ISAAC GETTING STRONGER...
SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE THREAT EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 86.2W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SSE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES
-------------------------------------------------
Strengthening has begun. Isaac has dropped 7mb since the previous 2pm advisory. Isaac is still contending with some dry air but once that mixes in, expect a more rapid intensification. I expect Isaac to become a hurricane late tonight or early in the morning hours. Landfall is expected near the MS coast with winds of 100 - 110mph.
Very nice satellite presentation this afternoon. You can see the dry air on the east side of the system but it should start filling in nicely in a few hours.
http://www.daculaweather.com/4_sat_se_us.php

I use this map a lot when we get weather coming our way.
http://www.daculaweather.com/4_spc_meso_analysis.php

The leading edge of the first tropical clouds is just now entering the metro area. There are showers passing Macon and moving northwest.

Take a look at this beautiful image: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_sat_se_us_gulf_z.php

...ISAAC ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A HURRICANE...SIGNIFICANT
STORM SURGE AND FRESHWATER FLOOD THREAT TO THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 88.1W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SSE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES

The next NHC update on Isaac will be at 8am.

It appears that Isaac is finally forming an eyewall this morning ( http://www.daculaweather.com/4_gmex_ft_loop.php ) and beginning to gain a little strength. I believe that the next advisory will be an upgrade to Hurricane Isaac. Isaac will be a minimal hurricane when it reaches shore later today with winds of 80 mph or so. The main threat will be storm surge and extremely heavy rains. More in just a little while... New image uploaded also.

700 AM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012 - INTERMEDIATE UPDATE

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIND ISAAC NEARLY A HURRICANE...
SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE AND FRESHWATER FLOOD THREAT TO THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST...

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 88.2W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SSE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES
--------------------------------------------------

Isaac should become a hurricane before the 10am update. As soon as it does, I will create a new blog post and update you. Isaac has slowed down from 12 mph to 7mph. This decrease in forward speed could be devastating for the Louisiana coast and for inland flooding. More updates in a while.

Multiple clean 60-63 kt SFMR datapoints with a Flight Level wind of 80 kt and peak 10s Flight Level wind of 86 knots.

I think we can safely call Isaac a hurricane.