Significant Rainfall Expected During the Next Seven Days
So how do you like spring time in the middle of winter? Not much fun in my book, but it is what it is, so we might as well make the best of it. Even though we haven't had snow here, it's still better than last winter.
Starting tomorrow, the rain will be returning to our area and much of the southeast as one system after the other begins their journey across the US. Enjoy the weekend's nice spring like weather, because by late Sunday the next system is advancing toward the southeast and bringing lots of rain with it. We are possibly looking at 2-5" of rainfall over the next seven days, which would go a long way toward reducing the drought here in Georgia. Currently, 12 percent of the state is in an Exceptional drought (D4) while 44 percent is in an Extreme drought (D3). Most areas of Georgia "only" need around 3-9" of rainfall to break the drought, and this period of rainfall should go a long way toward reducing the persistent drought that has been hanging on for almost a year. The recent rains have left the soils in the northern 1/3 of Georgia very saturated, so one thing we'll have to keep an eye on is our Flash Flood Guidance for excessive rainfall and runoff. Due to the already saturated soils, much of the rain that will fall will runoff into our creeks, streams, and rivers and potentially cause some flash flooding issues for some people. with the rain, we won't be seeing much sunshine next week due to a southwest upper level flow that will bring a steady stream of clouds and moisture our way.
Things appear to get interesting toward the end of next week as the Euro tries to develop a cut-off low in the southwest corner of the country. Right now the GFS hasn't caught on so we'll have to wait to see how this plays out. Cut-off lows are how we get our best snows here in Atlanta, and this is the time of year that they pick up, so this will be a very interesting system to watch.
Robert Gamble, the meteorologist at WXSouth, had the following to say about this winter so far:
"There’s simply no denying that we have been living in some incredibly warm times over the last 24 months or so here in the United States. But remember weather comes and goes in cycles, and I’m not going to attribute anything cold or warm, storm or lack of, to Global Warming …that’s another story. Remember we are also coming off of back-to-back cold Winters overall, very cold ones…recall the Winters of 2009/10 and 2010/11? BRRRRRR. Needless to say, the atmosphere has flipped and done the exact opposite right after that last cold Winter, and we've been roasting at record levels ever since, save a slightly below month here or there. But only here in the lower 48 states is this the case…when you look around the Northern Hemisphere over the last 3 Winters now, all three have been stone cold in central (sometimes western ) Europe, Asia and Russia. The last 2 Winters now also include very cold for most of Canada and Alaska. So that leaves the lower 48 states as the only remaining really “hot spot”. For most of northern China, Russia and central Europe, these 2 back to back Winters now fall into the extreme category. This makes sense, since it’s unlikely that the entire Northern Hemisphere can be all cold. Nature works in balance, and since those areas are extremely cold relative to their normal's, most likely some region will have to counterbalance that, and in this case, the lower 48 states is doing the job. We are the ones still having the extremely warm weather, but that has eased some recently."
This hasn't exactly been the easiest winter to forecast due to things not occurring exactly as they have been predicted. I know you probably think I'm crazy when I show you all the maps and charts and tell you cold air is coming and... nothing. It really isn't me, I promise. All the meteorologist have had the same issue, the models have really been off in their accuracy this winter. Robert had this to say about how the teleconnection indices have done (or how they HAVEN'T done) this winter.
"So far, the indices such as AO and NAO and PDO haven’t been exactly lining up with what’s actually occurring, at least here in the eastern and southeastern US so far this Winter. It’s been an extremely unusual case, especially considering how often and how strong the negative AO has been at times. Recall the study I have on negative AO periods and how almost always, when there is a 3 month negative consecutive period, vast regions of the Southeast from MS/AL/TN/NorthGA/SC/NC/VA/KY end up with above average snowfall. So far, this hasn’t happened. As it turns out, this is one of those rare instances where the negative AO has been working with a very strong negative PDO to send almost all the cold air to the other side of the globe. However, a trough has remained put in Canada, and recently enough cold has come into the Plains and Northeast to mute the above normal temp effects. Usually, a negative AO is accompanied many times with negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) but in this season’s case, all the neg. NAO periods have been more east based, not west based. All of the blocks this Winter have occurred in northern and eastern Greenland, not southern Greenland and eastern Canada/Baffin Island. This combined with a -PDO regime has fought off any sustained cold in the central to eastern US, and especially so for the Southeast."
So as you can see, it's been a very trying winter for weather forecast. I would tell you the models are showing colder than normal for the 2nd half of February, but if you are like me, I'll believe it when I see it.
The new State of The Climate for 2012 has been released, if you're reading this you can get a preview of my next blog post here, but here is a very brief summary.
"In 2012, the contiguous United States (CONUS) average annual temperature of 55.3°F was 3.2°F above the 20th century average, and was the warmest year in the 1895-2012 period of record for the nation. The 2012 annual temperature was 1.0°F warmer than the previous record warm year of 1998. Since 1895, the CONUS has observed a long-term temperature increase of about 0.13°F per decade. Precipitation averaged across the CONUS in 2012 was 26.57 inches, which is 2.57 inches below the 20th century average. Precipitation totals in 2012 ranked as the 15th driest year on record. Over the 118-year period of record, precipitation across the CONUS has increased at a rate of about 0.16 inch per decade."
Finally, just a plug for my friend Robert Gamble. Robert has got to be one of the finest and most knowledgeable meteorologist for southeast weather anywhere. I use his guidance a lot and I always trust his expertise for our area. If you have any need for weather related information for, business, insurance claims, or just for personal information, Robert is the person to talk to.
"WxSouth Commercial saves your company money. We arm you with the data you need to make sound business decisions. With our expert short and long range outlooks, your commerce will be prepared, which could help you minimize loss and protect assets. We also provide specific data on natural events that could have an impact on your industry." Please visit http://www.wxsouth.com for more information.
Please remember, whenever you need weather information, please visit us at the new and improved DaculaWeather.com. You can also get the latest weather information by following us on Twitter and Facebook
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North Georgia Weather
4:38 pm on Wednesday, February 6, 2013
From the Atlanta NWS office this afternoon:
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATEST MODELS FOR A BETTER CONSENSUS ON QPF THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WITH THE SHORT TERM RAIN EVENT FOLLOWED BY THIS SEEMINGLY VERY WET WEEK...FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY...AND A FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED THIS WEEKEND.
Tommy Hunter
9:09 pm on Wednesday, February 6, 2013
I REALLY like the sound of all that rain potential. It'd sure be nice for my well at the farm to get some water in it before summer!!
North Georgia Weather
6:15 am on Thursday, February 7, 2013
I hear you! We're slowly catching up in the rainfall department. Tommy, look at the 7 day precip forecast if you like rain: http://www.daculaweather.com/images/2013_02/7day.gif
Tommy Hunter
12:03 pm on Thursday, February 7, 2013
I don't know Steve. Looking at the trajectory of the precipitation on radar, I don't like the way our chances look for this go--typical of the pattern we've been in.
North Georgia Weather
12:24 pm on Thursday, February 7, 2013
This batch will be a little south today, more over central Georgia. There will be another bout of rain later tonight and then a little break for tomorrow and part of Sunday. Next week is when the good rains come for us. But yes, you are correct, it is a little south of us today. Just enough rain to make the day dreary. Looking at the radar estimated rainfall amounts, Gwinnett has had anywhere from around 0.05" to about 0.20" so far. I would actually rather see it rain slower so less will run off, although at some point in the next few days, it's all going to run off in our area!
North Georgia Weather
12:33 pm on Thursday, February 7, 2013
I'm working on a new page for Lake Lanier water levels, still adding to it....
http://www.daculaweather.com/4_lake_lanier.php
North Georgia Weather
5:07 pm on Thursday, February 7, 2013
At 4:40pm my rainfall total is exactly 0.50" and still raining, although it appears it will be ending shortly.
You can see the current rain ( http://www.daculaweather.com/4_spc_meso_analysis.php ) and a batch of rain to our west that may bring some additional showers later tonight. We'll keep track of the 7 day totals so we can see how we did.
Anytime you need to see daily/monthly/yearly NOAA weather summaries for conditions at DaculaWeather.com, you can click here: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_dacula_noaa.php This page has all the summaries since DaculaWeather.com went online. Click on any of the links on that page and the data appears below the links.
I have another page for rainfall data recorded here: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_rainfallsummary_main.php
R++ - One of the famous "Dacula Crew"
5:50 pm on Thursday, February 7, 2013
Should we be worried about finding "Nemo"?
(Smiles)
North Georgia Weather
6:20 pm on Thursday, February 7, 2013
As good as I am at catching fish, Nemo doesn't have a worry. ;-)
North Georgia Weather
7:00 pm on Thursday, February 7, 2013
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
654 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY... PRODUCING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR CENTRAL GA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY EARLY SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS GA ON MONDAY... AND STALL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY... EACH ENHANCING PRECIPITATION. THE AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL DEPEND UPON EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO HINT THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL GA... BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL SET UP AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS.
ON AVERAGE... THREE TO FIVE INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF WHERE THE FRONT STALLS. TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY... LESSER AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE LIKELY AND RANGE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN TWO AND THREE INCHES. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS REPEATEDLY CROSS. WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF
THUNDER AT THIS TIME.
North Georgia Weather
7:22 pm on Thursday, February 7, 2013
SNOW!
Ok... not here :-) That was cruel wasn't it? :-)
At Sugar Mountain in NC - See web cam http://www.skisugar.com/sugarlive/
Tommy Hunter
9:03 pm on Thursday, February 7, 2013
It will stall just far enough south of us to give us dreary, crappy days with little rain. That's my bet.
R++ - One of the famous "Dacula Crew"
11:16 pm on Thursday, February 7, 2013
I'll take that bet and raise you two Mountain Dews...
North Georgia Weather
6:09 am on Friday, February 8, 2013
Man, I wish I was up north right now, they are going to get hammered with snow. Take a minute to read the HPC Snow and Icing discussion.
http://www.daculaweather.com/4_hpc_snow_disco.php
North Georgia Weather
6:14 am on Friday, February 8, 2013
I think Nantucket Island would be GREAT! They have Hurricane Force Wind Warnings out. Go here
http://www.daculaweather.com/national_alerts/4_severe_alert.php?WFO=box
and click on a location on the little local map to see the warnings and watches.
North Georgia Weather
6:21 am on Friday, February 8, 2013
WINTER STORM WARNING
Northern Worcester
Issued - February 8 2013 4:39 am EST
Update - February 8, 2013 6:20am EST
Expires - February 9 1:00pm EST
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
439 AM EST FRI FEB 8 2013
...A POTENTIAL HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND BLIZZARD IS EXPECTED TO
DROP UP TO 3 FEET OF SNOW THROUGH SATURDAY...
North Georgia Weather
11:19 am on Friday, February 8, 2013
Powerful Nor'easter Coming Together
02/08/2013 12:00 AM EST
http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/imagegallery/image_feature_2445.html
A massive winter storm is coming together as two low pressure systems are merging over the U.S. East Coast. A satellite image from NOAA's GOES-13 satellite on Feb. 8 shows a western frontal system approaching the coastal low pressure area. The satellite image, captured at 9:01 a.m. EST, shows clouds associated with the western frontal system stretching from Canada through the Ohio and Tennessee valleys, into the Gulf of Mexico. The comma-shaped low pressure system located over the Atlantic, east of Virginia, is forecast to merge with the front and create a powerful nor'easter. The National Weather Service expects the merged storm to move northeast and drop between two to three feet of snow in parts of New England. Credit: NASA
North Georgia Weather
11:47 am on Friday, February 8, 2013
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
Issued - February 8 2013 11:28 am EST
Update - February 8, 2013 11:45am EST
Expires - February 9 6:00am EST
...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING LIKELY OVER NORTH GEORGIA SUNDAY NIGHT
SPREADING INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA BY TUESDAY...
.RAINFALL EXPECTED...
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE FORECAST TO
BEGIN IN NORTH GEORGIA SUNDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO
CENTRAL GEORGIA BY TUESDAY. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE ATLANTA METRO AREA.
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
NEXT WEEK. AS THIS OCCURS A WARM FRONT OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WILL APPROACH GEORGIA ON SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL FORCE ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS OF THE GEORGIA MOUNTAINS TO ENHANCE THE RAINFALL. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL OVER SOUTH GEORGIA ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE COMBINED WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
... continued
North Georgia Weather
11:48 am on Friday, February 8, 2013
... continued
.PRE-EXISTING CONDITIONS...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES HAVE OCCURRED OVER NORTH GEORGIA SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR...GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. IN CENTRAL GEORGIA...1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OCCURRED JUST YESTERDAY. STREAM FLOW LEVELS ARE GENERALLY NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL IN NORTH GEORGIA AND ARE RISING INTO THE NORMAL RANGE IN CENTRAL GEORGIA. CONSEQUENTLY...MOIST SOIL CONDITIONS EXIST WITH SOME AREAS STILL WET. THIS WILL ALLOW ANY HEAVY RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BE QUICKLY ABSORBED...THEN RUN OFF INTO NEARBY STREAMS...CREEKS AND RIVERS.
.IMPACTS...
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IF THE HEAVY RAIN
REPEATEDLY MOVES OVER THE SAME AREA. ALSO...STORM DRAINS AND
DITCHES MAY BECOME QUICKLY CLOGGED WITH DEBRIS AND CAUSE EXTENSIVE STREET FLOODING AND ROAD PONDING.
MINOR FLOODING OF SOME OF THE LARGER CREEKS OR RIVERS IS MORE LIKELY WITH THE EXPECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE PRE-EXISTING CONDITIONS...ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT FLOODING MAY AFFECT FLOOD PRONE ROADS AND SOME STRUCTURES NEARBY.
THIS WEATHER SITUATION SHOULD BECOME MORE CERTAIN WITH EACH MODEL RUN...SO STAY ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WATCHES AND FUTURE WARNINGS. KNOW WHAT TO DO IF A WARNING IS ISSUED AND YOU LIVE NEAR A CREEK OR RIVER.
More later...
North Georgia Weather
12:16 pm on Friday, February 8, 2013
NWS meteorologist a little while ago, this will be one storm for the record books::
"I am impressed with what I am seeing thus far this morning. Only negative is it may be deepening too rapidly and stalling just a tad as convection wraps ahead of the upper level Polar Vortex anomaly. That may tend to slow this down a tad. The heavy dump comes as convective cells initiating along the occlusion/trough axis and wrap into the WCB/deform band. Unfortunately that is over water.
The positive is the stretching deformation/upper level frontogenesis that will occur later over SNE may be epic, and the NAM may not be too far off once the phase completes. In fact, the NAM is simulating one of the most hellacious episodes of upper level frontogenesis I have ever seen...so much so it is actually forming upper level Polar Vortex as large amounts of Latent Heat is released aloft above the front. Can't say I have ever even seen such a thing. NAM is too wet though, way too wet. Not realistic to have the same precip over SNE as there currently is over the Gulf Stream. Even with dendritic growth, hard to survive in high ratios when 70 MPH northeasterly winds are ripping them apart. There is an outside shot at 30" if both the decaying convective comma head and then the upper level frontal band manage to stall over the same region similar to the NAM depiction. And believe it or not, there is reason to believe the NAM is not completely off its rocker like most think."
North Georgia Weather
1:15 pm on Friday, February 8, 2013
From Roger Smith:
"Not much change to my earlier forecast, all changes were slight increases with various zones moved 10-20 miles south mainly, also added a 40-inch zone and revised the 3' contour to 35" for continuity. Forecast -- expect large area of 2-3 ft accumulations in southern New England, trending to 1-2 ft NYC metro and n NJ, central LI which receive similar QPF but suffer occasional mixing and lower ratios.
Expect steady drop in accum southeast of a zone from Brockton to Fall River with 8-12 inches for south Cape Cod and the Islands. Possible max of 40-45 inches on higher terrain facing east in eastern MA and (isolated) east slope to height of Berkshires.
As mentioned before, thundersnow potential looks highest around 06z (0100 EST) to 09z (0400 EST) in an arc extending ISP-eCT-ORH-BOS including most of east MA and n RI. At this time accumulation rates could reach 3-6 inches an hour boosting totals to 30-40 inches locally in favoured upslope locations from se NH across e/c MA into ne CT. A secondary max will probably run down the eastern flank of the Berkshires and into s VT, and a third max can be expected largely off-map in the Catskills and southeast Adirondacks.
Peak wind gusts 85 mph Cape Cod and Islands, 60 mph BOS (80 mph higher elevations) and 55 mph Long Island Sound across Long Island.
Short people should wear tall hats for later ease of discovery. Drifts of 7-12 feet possible into early Sunday in parts of e MA."
North Georgia Weather
1:15 pm on Friday, February 8, 2013
Note the last paragraph...
North Georgia Weather
5:35 pm on Friday, February 8, 2013
2 - 4" PER HOUR of snow will fall over some portions of New England tonight. Some areas will see 40"+. And I'm here.
SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE INCREASING IN CONCERT WITH INTENSE ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WITHIN A DEFORMATION ZONE.
ADDITIONALLY...AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH /LOCATED OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY PER 2130Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ IS FORECAST TO PHASE WITH THE OFFSHORE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE. AS THIS OCCURS...THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
WITHIN A COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING
DEEP-LAYER ASCENT. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A NEARLY SATURATED COLUMN WITH A DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER LOCATED BENEATH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THESE FACTORS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EXTREMELY HIGH SNOWFALL RATES...ESPECIALLY FROM EASTERN LONG ISLAND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...INCLUDING THE BOSTON METRO AREA...AS SUPPORTED BY THE RECENT SUITE OF HIGH-RESOLUTION NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.
North Georgia Weather
7:16 am on Saturday, February 9, 2013
You want to see MY snow that someone ELSE in CT got?
http://www.daculaweather.com/images/2013_02/ct_snow.jpg
Kristi Reed
8:33 am on Saturday, February 9, 2013
Hahaha! Better them than us! When will I get another 70+ day??
North Georgia Weather
8:56 am on Saturday, February 9, 2013
I am doing my best to make sure you don't get one of those until March. Late March. ;-)
North Georgia Weather
8:20 am on Saturday, February 9, 2013
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
640 AM EST SAT FEB 9 2013
(Excerpt)
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED IS THE LIKELY HEAVY RAIN EVENT
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE CWA. A COLD FRONT IS STILL
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
WITH THAT SAID...PREEXISTING CONDITIONS ACROSS GEORGIA...ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN GEORGIA...LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR FLOODING OF
RIVERS AND EVEN POSSIBLY ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. ALL
INTERESTS NEAR FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ABREAST OF THIS
SITUATION. ON A GOOD NOTE...AT THIS MOMENT IT APPEARS THAT CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA WILL RECEIVE MUCH NEEDED RAIN.
North Georgia Weather
8:59 am on Saturday, February 9, 2013
Time lapse from Portsmouth New Hampshire. These are great, high quality videos.
http://www.portsmouthwebcam.com/index.php/tugboats-time-lapse-3hr
North Georgia Weather
9:01 am on Saturday, February 9, 2013
Another one of the Square there:
http://www.portsmouthwebcam.com/index.php/market-square/
North Georgia Weather
12:23 pm on Saturday, February 9, 2013
I like this one the best. Scroll down and watch the last 24 hours starting at midnight (start of the day Friday until midnight Friday night.
http://www.portsmouthwebcam.com/index.php/market-square-2/
North Georgia Weather
3:58 pm on Saturday, February 9, 2013
Thundersnow during the blizzard last night: http://youtu.be/bDKzWuw0yh4
North Georgia Weather
4:24 pm on Saturday, February 9, 2013
From Steve, a professional forecaster in Texas:
"Rare coast to coast below temps in the medium range, including Canada seems to be on tap. Temps anomalies from the 15th-25th will be interesting to look at...my guess is that the areal coverage of the cold anomalies for that period will be extraordinary."
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0100 PM EST SAT 09 FEBRUARY 2013
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 10/1100Z TO 11/1100Z FEBRUARY 2013
WSPOD NUMBER.....12-071
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: ALASKAN-BASED TRACK
P16/ DROP 8 (40.0N 164.0W)/ 12/0000Z
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE
P23/ DROP 8 (47.0N 175.0W)/ 13/0000Z
North Georgia Weather
3:46 am on Sunday, February 10, 2013
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
324 AM EST SUN FEB 10 2013
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTH GEORGIA...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CARROLLTON...TO ATLANTA...TO ATHENS...TO
LEXINGTON.
* FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH 1 PM EST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA BY MONDAY MORNING.
* RECENT RAINFALL HAS MADE THE SOIL VERY MOIST ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA. AS THE RAIN IS LIKELY FALL QUICKLY TONIGHT...FLASH
FLOODING COULD DEVELOP ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG LARGER STREAMS AND RIVERS.
North Georgia Weather
4:09 am on Sunday, February 10, 2013
Beautiful
http://www.daculaweather.com/images/2013_02/portsmouth_snow_2.jpg
North Georgia Weather
5:46 am on Sunday, February 10, 2013
Oh no... the snow word. :-)
GFS AND EUROPEAN DIFFER GREATLY ON SATURDAY WITH THE EUROPEAN INDICATING A SHARPER UPPER TROUGH AND MUCH MORE MOISTURE THAN THE GFS. THIS WOULD MEAN A WETTER FORECAST FROM THE EUROPEAN AND DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURES AND TIMING...MAYBE EVEN SNOW.
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS WELL WITH THE EUROPEAN
INDICATING SOME PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR THE FAR N COUNTIES AND THE GFS
LESS SO...AGAIN DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURES AND TIMING IT COULD MEAN
SNOW.
North Georgia Weather
6:42 am on Sunday, February 10, 2013
Awesome time lapse video from Market Square in Portsmouth New Hampshire. The video covers the entire day, from midnight to midnight. This was also the height of the blizzard for them.
http://www.daculaweather.com/images/2013_02/sat_020913_portsmouth_nh.mp4
North Georgia Weather
7:18 am on Sunday, February 10, 2013
Pure snow porn, I would LOVE to see a map like this here:
http://www.daculaweather.com/images/2013_02/snow_totals_ne.png
North Georgia Weather
8:04 am on Sunday, February 10, 2013
Severe weather breaking out in Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas, and moving into Mississippi. Rain will begin here in earnest after noon today.
North Georgia Weather
11:29 am on Sunday, February 10, 2013
034 AM EST SUN FEB 10 2013
.UPDATE...
GRIDS LOOK PRETTY GOOD FOR THE MOST PART FOR TODAY...THOUGH WILL
BE REEVALUATING BEGINNING TIME OF PRECIP FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT HPC QPF
IS STILL UNDERDONE IN NORTH GEORGIA...06Z GUIDANCE AND SOME OF THE NEW 12Z GUIDANCE TRICKLING IN HAS THE AXIS A TAD FARTHER NORTH AND ALL HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. EVEN THE SREF HAS MORE THAN HPC
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WHICH IS CONCERNING SINCE THE SREF...BY THE
DEFINITION OF BEING AN ENSEMBLE...IS USUALLY LOWER THAN MUCH OF
THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. THAT ALL SAID THOUGH...DO NOT FEEL
COMFORTABLE MAKING CHANGES TO QPF JUST YET...AT LEAST UNTIL THE
REST OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE WORKS ITS WAY IN
In other words... possibly more rain than originally forecast.
North Georgia Weather
12:35 pm on Sunday, February 10, 2013
New updated snow accumulation map from the blizzard...
http://www.daculaweather.com/images/2013_02/snow_totals_ne_2.png
North Georgia Weather
2:40 pm on Sunday, February 10, 2013
Its beginning to look more and more like very cold temperatures will return next weekend, most likely the coldest of the winter season.
North Georgia Weather
2:52 pm on Sunday, February 10, 2013
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
247 PM EST SUN FEB 10 2013
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
OF COURSE THE MAIN CONCERN OF THE SHORT TERM IS THE HEAVY RAIN THAT WILL BE MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SECONDARY CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS. FOR DAYS NOW GUIDANCE HAS BEEN POINTING TO THE CUTOFF LOW IN THE UPPER MIDWEST MOVING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT DRAGGING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE TROUGHINESS OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY HAS LED TO DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH STRONG 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH PW VALUES
RANGING FROM 1.4 /NAM/ TO 1.6 /GFS/. EITHER VALUE IS ABOVE THE 99TH
PERCENTILE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGICAL PW VALUES WITH 1.6 BEING ABOVE
THE MAX CLIMATOLOGICAL PW. WITH THESE PW VALUES...RAIN RATES COULD
BE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH AND MODEL QPFS MIGHT NOT BE ABLE TO CAPTURE WHAT IS GOING ON. SOME OBSERVATIONS FROM THE LOWER SOUTH HAVE INDICATED RATES OF 0.5-1 INCH PER HOUR IN THE MORE CONVECTIVE CELLS. WITH THIS...AM DEFINITELY CONCERNED ABOUT FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL... ESPECIALLY WITH THE MAIN SURGE OF PRECIP MOVING IN FROM 00-06Z (7pm - 1am) TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA.
... continue
North Georgia Weather
2:55 pm on Sunday, February 10, 2013
GFS QPF IS ON THE HIGH SIDE /ALMOST 3 INCHES/ BUT GFS ALSO HAS A LOW PV ANOMALY /AND CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK/ CONTRIBUTING TO ITS HIGHER QPF...AS IS TYPICAL. THAT SAID...EVEN THE SREF HAS WIDESPREAD 0.75-1 INCH FROM 00-06Z TONIGHT. BY THE NATURE OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...SREF IS TYPICALLY LOWER THANDETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SO THIS IS A BIT CONCERNING. 12Z ECMWF HASALSO SLOWED DOWN TIMING FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUNS. HAVE INCREASED AND SLOWED DOWN HPC QPF VALUES BUT DO NOT HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN. WE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCHES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT RESIDENTS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE OBSERVED.
AS FOR THUNDER POTENTIAL...MUCAPE VALUES ON ALL MODELS REMAIN
GENERALLY BELOW 800 J/KG...WITH THE GFS LOWEST AND NAM HIGHEST AS
USUAL. THAT SAID HOWEVER...SEEING QUITE A BIT OF LIGHTNING OUT IN
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA SO WENT AHEAD AND KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER IN MOST OF THE GRIDS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET SETTING UP FOR OVERNIGHT...THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR MOVING INTO THE AREA INCREASES ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. TIMING OF THE FRONT IS GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TO MOVE INTO GEORGIA...AND WITH BEST STRONG TO POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LINING UP WITH THE FRONT THIS WARRANTS KEEPING THUNDER IN OVERNIGHT.
... continued
North Georgia Weather
2:55 pm on Sunday, February 10, 2013
SPC SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY1 GOES RIGHT UP TO THE BORDER WITH ONLY MINIMAL SEVERE PROBS PUSHING INTO WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA. USED A NAM/GFS BLEND TO CALCULATE EXPERIMENTAL SHERB /SEVERE HAZARDS IN ENVIRONMENTS WITH REDUCED BUOYANCY - DEVELOPED LIKE STP WITH VALUES GREATER THAN 1 MEANING HIGH SHEAR-LOW CAPE SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE/
PARAMETER AND AFTER 00Z DO SEE AN AREA OF GREATER THAN 1 NOSING INTO WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH VALUES HOVERING NEAR 1 THROUGH 06Z ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. THAT SAID...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO. OTHER CONCERN WOULD BE DUE TO THE VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...50-60KT AT 925MB...COULD STILL SEE STRONG GUSTS COMING DOWN WITH THE RAIN EVEN WITHOUT THUNDER OR OTHERWISE CONVECTIVE WEATHER. CURRENT WIND/WIND GUSTS GRIDS NOT ENOUGH FOR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT THESE MAY BE TOO LOW DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE JET ABOVE IS ABLE TO PENETRATE TO THE SURFACE.
North Georgia Weather
3:07 pm on Sunday, February 10, 2013
So in summary, heavy rains, with what is now a major concern for flooding tonight. You'll notice that they don't have a good handle on how this will play out, but fear the precip amounts may be higher than the models are showing.
Tommy Hunter
10:48 pm on Sunday, February 10, 2013
Wow, another underachiever. We're gonna be hard-pressed to get an inch. If these weather dudes (not you Steve, the media types) don't quit crying wolf somebody is going to really end up getting hurt. Folks just ain't going to listen to them any more.
North Georgia Weather
5:54 am on Monday, February 11, 2013
I've had 1.55" in the last 24 hours plus .6" on Friday for 2.15" so far. I still think that by Wednesday I'll have around 3 - 4" total. Wouldn't be too bad to a week in the winter! I still see some very cold temperatures on the way Tommy, don't plant that garden yet! :-)
North Georgia Weather
6:27 am on Monday, February 11, 2013
I should read what I type BEFORE hitting submit. <sigh>
I'm really starting to like this page: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_nws_edd.php
It took me a while to get it setup like I wanted it but after using it all weekend, I'm impressed. Once you have it like you like it, you can save the settings. The left side bar collapses also. I changed the map type to National, I turn on "radar", "Observations", and "upper air". Right now I have "Rivers" turned on to watch for flooding. It auto updates and the hourglass at the top allows you to specify the update period.
Tommy Hunter
10:55 am on Monday, February 11, 2013
0.65" since yesterday.
Kristi Reed
3:05 pm on Monday, February 11, 2013
I emptied my gauge before the rain started yesterday and am showing just over 2.5" so far (at 3 p.m. on Feb. 11).
North Georgia Weather
4:27 pm on Monday, February 11, 2013
You GO girl!! That's really good. As of 4:25pm I've had this:
Fri - 0.58"
Sat - 0.01"
Sun - 0.00"
Mon - 1.32"
Tue - 0.49"
=========
2.40"
North Georgia Weather
4:30 pm on Monday, February 11, 2013
Tommy has a "Rain Triangle", similar to the "Bermuda Triangle", over his house I think. The rain falls but it mysteriously disappears before reaching his gauge. And of course we all have a "Snow Triangle" over us. ;-)
Tommy Hunter
5:47 pm on Monday, February 11, 2013
Nope, it is up to 1". I'm not counting Friday's totals--just Yesterday and today. By the way, Steve, how'd you get 0.49" on Tuesday when it's only Monday?? You will see, if you watch loops, I-85 always seems to be the boundary. Right now it's raining good in L'ville and Dacula, but nothing here. Yesterday it was the southern boundary, today the northern.
North Georgia Weather
6:53 pm on Monday, February 11, 2013
LOL!!!! I guess I have no idea what day it is!!! LOL!!! Here is what I've gotten, I should have just provided a link... although I probably would have typed that wrong too! :-)
http://www.daculaweather.com/4_dacula_noaa.php
Copy... paste... is my friend.
North Georgia Weather
11:02 am on Monday, February 11, 2013
Lots of rain moving in shortly, looks like possibly a "most of the day" kind of rainfall.
North Georgia Weather
11:19 am on Monday, February 11, 2013
Latest model runs just in show snow for Atlanta this weekend. We'll see if the can get more consistency as the week goes on.
North Georgia Weather
11:22 am on Monday, February 11, 2013
I haven't seem them but from someone that has...
"This gonna be a tough one...in GA from ATL south probably an inch to two inches....most of NC 1-3 and VA probably 3 - 6""
North Georgia Weather
1:06 pm on Monday, February 11, 2013
New Flood Watch just issued:
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND MOST OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A CEDARTOWN TO
ALPHARETTA TO ATHENS LINE.
* THROUGH 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
* MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND MOST OF CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. SINCE SUNDAY AFTERNOON... BETWEEN ONE AND THREE
INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY AS
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME AREAS.
* RECENT RAINFALL HAS MADE THE SOIL VERY MOIST... AND THE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD LEAD TO FLOODING ALONG
RIVERS... SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. ALSO... STORM DRAINS AND
DITCHES MAY BECOME CLOGGED... CAUSING ADDITIONAL STREET
FLOODING... ESPECIALLY ALONG LOW LYING FLOOD PRONE AREAS.
Tommy Hunter
5:50 pm on Monday, February 11, 2013
Guess who is right on, or just north, of that Alpharetta to Athens boundary??? At least the farm is south of it--where I need the rain the worst, actually. Well still dry.
North Georgia Weather
4:41 pm on Monday, February 11, 2013
It's funny, you hear some meteorologist talking up the possibility of snow for us this weekend, and others poo pooing the idea. Meteorologist Ryan Maue was Tweeting today about how much of the southeast could see some snow:
"...actually Atlanta, Macon and most SE has decent** chance of seeing snow Sunday"
Ryan is no fly by night meteorologist, and is well respected by his peers. You can view some of Ryan's stuff here: http://models.weatherbell.com/
Atlanta NWS said this in the latest AFD:
... AND ONLY WARRANTS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW FOR MAINLY NORTH GA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY TIMING OF THE COLD AIR ARRIVAL WITH DEPARTING MOISTURE. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH GA...BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM... A COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN AND BRING UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
All eyes are on the models for the next few days, watching to see how this system will evolve. This will probably be one of the better chances that we've had all winter, so think positive...!
Tommy Hunter
5:51 pm on Monday, February 11, 2013
Cold chasing the moisture NEVER works for north Georgia. Don't get excited.
North Georgia Weather
5:18 pm on Monday, February 11, 2013
Might be time for a new blog post. The 18Z GFS runs are in ... we might have a snowstorm on our hands!
More to come...
Kristi Reed
5:44 pm on Monday, February 11, 2013
No Steve. Just plain no.
North Georgia Weather
6:20 pm on Monday, February 11, 2013
Awwww, c'mon Kristi. One snow, please?
This is no lock now anyway, it may be days before we find out what really may happen. But it's nice to dream!
Tommy Hunter
5:52 pm on Monday, February 11, 2013
By the way Steve, I really enjoy your blogs. Thanks for taking the time!
Sharon Swanepoel
5:54 pm on Monday, February 11, 2013
Snow Storm - is this another of those weekend scares coming up Steve?
North Georgia Weather
6:49 pm on Monday, February 11, 2013
I'm feeling a little warm and fuzzy about this one. Still days to go and things could change so nothing in the bank right now. But the possibility is increasing...
North Georgia Weather
6:16 pm on Monday, February 11, 2013
Tommy, you are very welcome, thanks for taking the time to read them. I never really know who or how many people read them, so whenever I hear from someone, both from here and from visitors to my website, it's always greatly appreciated.
North Georgia Weather
6:19 pm on Monday, February 11, 2013
I about cracked up when I saw this. This is the 18Z GFS snow depth. Keep in mind, this map hasn't been changed... notice the little hole over north Georgia... that's Gwinnett and Walton county. I told you we were in the "Snow Triangle"! :-)
http://www.daculaweather.com/images/2013_02/snow_hole.gif
Charles Welch
6:57 pm on Monday, February 11, 2013
Haha yeh i guess somehow the moisture is just gonna disappear and then magically reappear around that area. Or maybe instead of nothing there, maybe that's ground zero for 30" LOL. It's just that white
North Georgia Weather
8:08 pm on Monday, February 11, 2013
If anyone hasn't seen a panel of ensemble members...
Both the GFS and Euro models run with slight variations to their input to create what if scenarios. This page shows 12 different solutions to the upcoming system. Meteorologist Allan Hoffman pointed out that 3 are non-events, but quite a few of the others ones are big events. These charts depict 850 mg temps (~5000ft) as well as 6 hour precip. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/18zf132.html
North Georgia Weather
8:15 pm on Monday, February 11, 2013
WARNING... :-)
If you want to see the 18Z run of the 12 GFS ensemble scenarios for snow accumulation... click on this link. Each individual image also opens up to a large size.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/18zsnowf144.html
I'm sorry, for these images and the link in the previous comment, go to about hour 130 - 150
North Georgia Weather
8:28 pm on Monday, February 11, 2013
Comment from a little while ago...
"This will probably be our best chance of the season for a larger scale event. Funny how Friday night everyone was excited about the 0z's, then over the weekend we were all worried about the cold and lack of moisture. Now it would appear we may have a surface wave developing and riding up the arctic front. Cold seems like an almost lock at this point, storm not so much. Scenarios where we are dependent on a phase always show the greatest variability in solutions. One could argue against this point, but we are going to have to rely on energy phasing into the trough as it moves east, like the GFS is showing around 114 over IA/IL, this sharpens and tilts it. Pin pointing where and if this takes place at 5 days out is impossible, hence varying solutions from the Apps to half way to Bermuda."
wendy ray
8:09 pm on Tuesday, February 12, 2013
We can complain bout the rain..or welcome it. But no matter what we think we need weather wise..we are only going to get what God wants us to have. So why complain,it does no good.gods in control.
North Georgia Weather
3:27 pm on Wednesday, February 13, 2013
With the rain moving out to the northeast, my final rainfall total is 2.88". Not as much as I wanted but no one asked me anyway! :-)
Rainfall over central and south Georgia have really put a dent in the drought in that area, here is a 72 hour and a 7 day precipitation map for Georgia:
http://www.daculaweather.com/images/2013_02/ffc72.gif
http://www.daculaweather.com/images/2013_02/Wed_7day_se.gif