So the Witch of November comes early?

Yes, Mr. Lightfoot would be getting excited!

So no recovery for the lake levels at Lanier?

Sadly, no. For us, at least if it pans out like some of the models are predicting, cold weather will be the big story.

What would you suggest we do to prepare for the storm? Best and worst case scenario :)

NGW, could you please stall or delay this storm for another week or so, say precisely November 6th? Maybe some of these NE blue state voters will stay home.

Please use any force possible…including but not limited to a trough, wedge, gust, coriolis force, air mass, downburst, macro or micro burst, jet stream, inversion, occluded front, orographic uplift, squall line, wall cloud, El Nino, or God.

He (she?) is now Tropical Storm Sandy and is nearly stationary (drifting northward) with max winds of 45 mph.

From my meteorologist buddy Robert Gamble today...

"For now, I’ll keep updating daily on the expected track and strength of what will likely be Category 3 Sandy by the weekend, and pretty soon when I feel safe enough, I’ll make a call map on it’s track. All options are still on the table, but as of this writing, I’m leaning toward a powerful hurricane brushing Southeast Coast of FL, NC, and possibly NJ before likely heading out to sea. Again, if the ridge to the north builds like the ECMWF thinks, it’s possible Sandy hooks back northwest, but it all comes down to where Sandy is by the weekend. Stay tuned!"

Still too early to tell exactly what might happen.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 00:35Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2012
Storm Name: Sandy (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 10
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 0:09:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14°44'N 77°10'W (14.7333N 77.1667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 227 miles (365 km) to the S (186°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,339m (4,393ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 39kts (~ 44.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 29 nautical miles (33 statute miles) to the NW (305°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 65° at 40kts (From the ENE at ~ 46.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 41 nautical miles (47 statute miles) to the NW (312°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 991mb (29.26 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,519m (4,984ft)

continued...

J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,519m (4,984ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character (Undecoded): Ragged Eye
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 4 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Wind Outbound: 57kts (~ 65.6mph) in the southeast quadrant at 0:25:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 57kts (~ 65.6mph) in the southeast quadrant at 0:25:00Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
Additional spiral band 20nm dia in eye

Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
997mb (Surface) 170° (from the S) 39 knots (45 mph)
990mb 175° (from the S) 46 knots (53 mph)
973mb 185° (from the S) 49 knots (56 mph)
943mb 200° (from the SSW) 45 knots (52 mph)
930mb 200° (from the SSW) 58 knots (67 mph)
922mb 200° (from the SSW) 54 knots (62 mph)
871mb 205° (from the SSW) 57 knots (66 mph)
856mb 205° (from the SSW) 54 knots (62 mph)
843mb 205° (from the SSW) 55 knots (63 mph)

A recon flight is currently in the area of the storm and that is where the information from above came from. Through the day the NHC cone has shifted slightly west and the center of Sandy has been slightly west of the NHC forecast positions. What this means is still to be seen, but any movement of the track to the west puts Florida closer to the path of the storm.

Meteorologist speaking

"It's a tough situation when you have one model saying winds SE 100-150 mph, storm surge 20-40 ft, possible 8-16 inches of rain, and another one saying winds NE 20-40 mph, no storm surge, possible half inch of rain mixed with sleet. How do you blend those and get a consensus for your five-day outlook?"

... continued

"I guess the NYC mets will be warning their viewers and clients that a major, potentially destructive storm warning could be declared at any time within 24-48 hours, or could be waved off and an all clear sounded. We should echo this on the forum and simply say it's not possible to choose between the two options yet, what we are looking at is (in layman's terms) whether or not Sandy threads a needle and gets past a block in its path -- if it does, then the conditions may be ideal for it to max out and reach the intensity of a major hurricane. It may even still be a major hurricane (but if not, same difference, larger wind field). But at the same time, it could be weakened by this process and could arrive as a much weaker system, or, it could be blocked out and forced to turn right and head east, looking for some other weakness in the block and perhaps becoming a problem days later somewhere well to the east.

So basically, I think there's maybe a one in three chance of a weather disaster, one in three chance of a weather "event" that is not a disaster, and one in three that nothing much will happen, it will get colder and perhaps rain or sleet a bit."

... continued from above.

"My feeling is that we will have model consensus by 12z Friday but this gives perhaps 48h for effective evacuations over a busy weekend when many people will perhaps be distracted by politics, football, Halloween, month end concerns, etc etc. If the Euro were exactly right, anyone who could leave Long Island or the coastal parts of NJ, se NY and CT-RI should plan to do so and move valuables away from harm's way. With the reputation of the Euro, if I lived there, I would probably get ready to do that but wait a day or two and see what happened on the models. If this was just one other model, it would be less ominous. But the Euro? I am not aware of the Euro as being a major over-developer like the GGEM sometimes does, but in this case, you have 20-30 mbs of slack before a model error even becomes significant to the result. This would be just about as scary at 953 mbs as it is at 933 mbs."

And an excerpt from the NHC

"THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN SHOWING A 60-KT INTENSITY AFTER 36 HOURS
AND THE CYCLONE BECOMING POST-TROPICAL BY 120 HOURS.
HOWEVER...
THIS REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR BOTH THE INTENSITY AND
THE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE AFTER 48-72 HOURS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
IN THE AMOUNT OF BAROCLINIC INTERACTION. "

It's that baroclinic interaction that potentially turns Sandy into a superstorm.

Hurricane Sandy now.

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 76.7W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES

HURRICANE SANDY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
320 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

...SANDY MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN JAMAICA...

SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
LOCATION...17.9N 76.7W
ABOUT 5 MI...8 KM E OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES

THE EYE OF HURRICANE SANDY MADE LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST
OF JAMAICA NEAR KINGSTON AT APPROXIMATELY 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT LANDFALL WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 MPH...
130 KM/H.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

...SANDY EMERGING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST OF JAMAICA...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 76.6W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NNE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO SEBASTIAN INLET.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA TO FLAGLER BEACH.

The NHC cone has shifted west a little more. http://www.daculaweather.com/4_sandy.php

About 5 minutes ago:

Time: 00:16:00Z
Coordinates: 18.5667N 76.2W
Acft. Static Air Press: 696.7 mb (~ 20.57 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,920 meters (~ 9,580 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 973.4 mb (~ 28.74 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 233° at 91 knots (From the SW at ~ 104.6 mph)
Air Temp: 14.4°C (~ 57.9°F)
Dew Pt: 5.7°C (~ 42.3°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 93 knots (~ 106.9 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 66 knots (~ 75.9 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr (~ 0.04 in/hr)

We have what appears to be a major hurricane brewing. Crossing over Jamaica did little to nothing to weaken Sandy, and now a hurricane hunter is near the center and clocking winds more than 90 mph at the surface and flight level winds more than 100 mph. Sandy's core has tightened up and the cloud tops on IR have gotten much colder, again a sign of strengthening. It also appears that the center is to the west of the last NHC position and not a good sign for Florida.

From a met commenting on the recon data below:
000
URNT12 KNHC 250026
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182012
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 96 KT SE QUAD 00:15:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
MAX FL TEMP 15 C 298 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTR
FREQUENT LIGHTNING NW EYEWALL INBOUND
;
"The thing that caught my eye was the 15°C at 700 mb.... Hot Tower baby! You try getting 15°C at 700mb. You won't find it anywhere besides a 120°F day in Death Valley under dry adiabatic conditions or right here..."

Lots of ocean heat is rising rapidly into these thunderstorms and heating the air at roughly 10,000 feet to more than 60 degrees. That is some serious venting of heat and with very good outflow right now, will also cause Sandy to strengthen.

Gulf or east coast Steve?

East coast, but not a direct hit, at least not Florida. I just uploaded another model map that shows a deadly storm if it indeed comes to pass. Another meteorologist just said this:

"This is still about the peak of the year for ocean SSTs. Baroclinic energy will take over as the driving process when Sandy reaches the cooler waters, it could very well intensify all the way until shore like the globals are suggesting. And I mean intensify in the sense of its minimum pressure and kinetic energy, peak winds will level out as it transitions to around cat 1-2 but the wind field will keep expanding. This has major storm surge written all over it."

New England NWS forecast discussion excerpt:
THE STORM IS
TAKING ON A HISTORICAL PRECEDENT COMPARED TO THE CLIMATOLOGY OF
OTHER POST-TROPICAL SYSTEMS DURING THE AUTUMN MONTHS. WITH REGARDS
TO THE LITERARY DISCUSSION YESTERDAY...THE POST-TROPICAL TRACK OF
SANDY IS SLIGHTLY ANOMALOUS TO BENCHMARK TRACKS OF THE GREAT GALE OF
1878 AND HURRICANE HAZEL IN 1954 /THOUGH HAZEL DID EXHIBIT A SLIGHT
WESTWARD LEAN IT IS TRACK/.

Added another image, Miami is beginning .to see bands of rain from Sandy.

Sandy made landfall in Cuba earlier with 110 mph sustained winds. Weather station in Gran Piedra, Cuba (located at ~2600 feet) reported a gust of 152 mph

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

...CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE SANDY PREPARING TO MOVE OFF THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 75.8W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM S OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
ABOUT 40 MI...75 KM E OF HOLGUIN CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST HAS BEEN
EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA
COAST FROM FERNANDINA BEACH SOUTHWARD TO NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH.

NE meteorologist:
"Looks like the greatest clarity at the moment is the inland snowstorm followed by the heavy rain in NJ-ePA. Other details have greater uncertainties but the range of impacts is tremendous. For southern New England, the range is from catastrophic to minor (excluding low-prob swerving out to sea variants). "

Great blog by NASA explaining Sandy from a satellite perspective. More and more likely to follow the Euro solution and make landfall in the northeast. This could be a very dangerous storm. http://goesrnatcentperspective.wordpress.com/

GOES 13 has been place in "RSO" mode, Rapid Scan Operations at the request of the National Hurricane Center to track hurricane Sandy. This is a mode in which the GOES satellite can provide images over the conterminous US region approximately every 7.5 minutes. This doubles the number of GOES images generated per hour and is requested for a particular satellite.

A Critical Weather Day was issued beginning yesterday and continuing through Monday.
START: 1200Z WED OCT 24 2012
END: 0000Z MON OCT 29 2012
TYPE: Regional
WHO: NCEP, NWSTG, NCF, NWS SOUTHERN REGION

The NCEP declaration of a Critical Weather Day (CWD) will ensure that the computer, communications, and personnel resources of the NCEP are directed toward production and delivery of essential forecast products. This policy will minimize the chance of delay in the delivery of NCEP products and services to NCEP customers.

Storm mode basically.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

...SANDY APPROACHING THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 75.5W
ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM SSW OF LONG ISLAND
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSE OF GREAT EXUMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES

I see the major news outlets are finally making this a big story... as it should be. Very dangerous system, especially for the northeast.

This track looks like it will nail NJ/NY!

http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/Active.aspx?storm=1&type=track

Yes, right now it's not looking good for the northeast at all. We've also been noticing a slight change in direction, more toward the NW. Sandy has been moving at about 10 degrees east of north, but the last report had a due north component and it is very possibly about 350º (or about 10 degrees west of north). The westward jog was anticipated along with a slow down, but this will also need to be watched carefully. The current forecast track doesn't have Sandy that far off the Florida coast and any westward movement is cause for concern.

Nice satellite loop here. Click on visible loop http://www.daculaweather.com/4_sat_caribbean.php

I guess trick or treating in Manhattan is out of the question. Hurricane Sandy costumes may be a big hit this year.

Huntsville NWS is calling for temps to be 30 degrees colder than todays 80 degree reading by Sunday/Monday